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All Sun’s Dawn – Delving Into My Secrets

Hey everyone! This past weekend, my local gaming store Comic Town hosted a double Modern PTQ, double Starcity Games IQ weekend, which was dubbed “Ohio Magic Weekend 2012.” It was a successful weekend where we hit around 100 players for each PTQ day (close to the average number of players in nearby PTQ’s), despite having both a nearby SCG Open in Memphis and a Grand Prix in Baltimore. We also had a 41 man Legacy SCG IQ on the second day. The venue was pretty packed the entire weekend.

As usual, I received an opportunity to work with my friend Matt Kranstuber (you can follow him @kstube) as one of the vendors at the event. As part of my general responsibilities, I designed the Standard and Modern portion of the buylist that we used throughout the event, and acted as one of the two buyers in the booth when we were up and running. Business as usual? You bet! In this article, I have broken it down into three sections: Standard pickups, trade grinder gold, and a Q&A section from Twitter. That’s why I named the article “Delving into My Secrets” – I get a chance to talk about my thought process when I approach MTG Finance, especially for a weekend like this where we had to compete with three other very good vendors. I would like to give a special shout-out to RIW Hobbies, Just Games, and Empire Games for coming out to the event this weekend as well.

Standard Pickups

Every time there is some kind of huge swing in the Standard metagame, like the introduction of a new set, I always brainstorm about what cards would be largely affected to stay ahead of the game and prepare for the next equilibrium. Sometimes, you do miss, like I did on [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card]. If you asked me three weeks ago where [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card] would be now, I would have offered you $8 in buylist, and stuck it in the display case for $14. You learn from your mistakes so you can be a little more open-minded next time and consider all of the angles. This list is pretty short, since the pre-Dark Ascension pillars did a great job of sticking around. We did see a small presence from [card]Sorin, Lord of Innistrad[/card], along with a rise from [card]Primeval Titan[/card] once [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card] was discovered. The following group of cards that I considered sleepers going into the weekend.

Phyrexian Obliterator

 

Again, I will be using the Black Lotus Project to keep the prices objective. The format has slowed down just a tad since the pre-DKA metagame, which has allowed for cards like [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card] to gain a second wind. It gained a lot of support from Innistrad block with a number of zombies and [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card]. It has risen in price in the past month from $10.85/ea to $13.23/ea. Since this price is an eBay value, the change is even more dramatic among retail stores. This past weekend, a version of Mono Black Zombies Top 8’ed SCG Memphis with a light white splash for [card]Lingering Souls[/card] for increased threat density using [card]Sword of War and Peace[/card].

Darkslick Shores

[card]Darkslick Shores[/card] was already the second highest Scars of Mirrodin dual land, but recently, it has seen an even higher spike with the shifts in the metagame. Some UW Delver builds branched off to become Esper Spirits, taking advantage of [card]Lingering Souls[/card] as well. UB Control saw a huge rise in popularity, especially over the weekend when three players Top 8’ed the Grand Prix in Baltimore with it. Another deck in that same Top 8, UB Zombies, was also made possible with DKA. It was sitting at a low of $7.67/ea before rising to $10.26/ea, a very large percentage increase. Inside the weekend, before Day 1 Grand Prix and SCG Memphis Top 16 results started flowing in, I focused on buying these whenever I could.

Phantasmal Image

It seems like whenever a Hexproof lord is relevant again, that [card]Phantasmal Image[/card] makes a comeback. To get a better idea, I had to zoom out of Black Lotus Project’s 1 month view into the 3 month view. Right when the [card]Lord of the Unreal[/card] version of Illusions fell out of favor and the UW Delver decks started to rise, [card]Phantasmal Image[/card] lost a lot of value and players unloaded them quickly. When Dark Ascension introduced [card]Drogskol Captain[/card], suddenly everyone remembered again. It has risen to its “old” price of around $9.00/ea again. It still answers [card]Thrun, the Last Troll[/card]. We sold out of [card]Phantasmal Image[/card] twice on the weekend, and even had other dealers buying them from us to also be in stock.

Grimgrin, Corpse-Born

All right, there’s no constructed application here, but there is definitely a demand for it. It has only seen a small increase over the past month, but I can only imagine with the Zombie support that we’ve seen so far in a graveyard based block with Morbid, that [card]Grimgrin, Corpse-Born[/card] is satisfying the casual palette. Most Zombie lords have also seen respective increases in price, mostly [card]Cemetery Reaper[/card] and more importantly, the more scarce [card]Undead Warchief[/card]. These are great pickups from competitive players if you have a casual market outlet.

Skirsdag High Priest

Should we believe the hype? This was a relevant discussion topic on Twitter over the past week, when some copies were spotted in a deck at SCG Charlotte which made the finals. Here’s my take on [card]Skirsdag High Priest[/card]. I don’t think you should expect insane dividends from picking this card up, but a small incremental value. With the binder grinder mentality, the gap between its perceived value and monetary value is another way to add to your edge. Considering the fact that this card was a mere bulk rare two weeks ago and is ending at $0.54/ea on eBay right now (which translates to bigger retail numbers), I would take a chance on this card when it hasn’t been made fully aware. It has synergy with black’s “kill everything” strategy, can generate a 5/5 flier if left unanswered, and should be a staple in black decks moving forward. These are some of my favorite types of cards to move in on; if you lose out, you minimize your losses early, and if you win, you reap high benefits.

Hellrider / Instigator Gang / Clifftop Retreat

What do these cards have in common? Well, I mentioned that I always consider what effects cards can have on the future metagame. The difference here is that I’m not considering what these guys can do in the immediate future, but instead what they can do when Scars of Mirrodin block rotates. I was reminded by my friend Greg Haenig (@uselessend) earlier in the weekend that [card]Hellrider[/card] has been seeing a lot of play in the Block queues on MTGO recently, so I decided to take another look. In many ways, Block constructed, despite not being a heavily played format, is a way to gaze into the future of Standard. In this case, we see what we consider to be the leftover shells of UW Humans, UR Tempo and RG beats. More importantly, we see some new archetypes like Liliana control and RW Humans.

Some of these decks feature up to a playset of [card]Instigator Gang[/card], and 2-4 [card]Hellrider[/card]. [card]Hellrider[/card] is, in my opinion, better than [card]Hero of Oxid Ridge[/card] right now. It doesn’t have the same vulnerability to a one-time use against a flashed in [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card], and guarantees damage against creatures with higher than 1 Power. [card]Instigator Gang[/card] is the mystery here, but like [card]Skirsdag High Priest[/card], if it’s a bulk rare now, what do you have to lose by picking them up? Finally, as Greg also pointed out to me, [card]Clifftop Retreat[/card] might see some play since we are missing the RW utility land, one that is likely to make an appearance in Avacyn Restored. BW archetypes got a boost from [card]Sorin, Lord of Innistrad[/card], [card]Vault of the Archangel[/card], and [card]Lingering Souls[/card], and this is entirely possible in the next set. Also, as it stands, we are unsure of what we get in Magic 2013, so the only certainty we have in terms of manabase support is Innistrad duals next year. It was the shock when the Worldwake Manlands rotated last year, so we shouldn’t make the same mistake twice. By the way, if you think Block Constructed isn’t relevant, take a quick peek at what format Grand Prix Los Angeles (May 26-27) is this year.

Trade Grinder Gold

Recently, right before the new year, Jonathan Medina (you ever heard of this guy?) wrote an article on some more obscure cards that have very good cash value universally to all dealers. Jon (@mtgmedina) is a good friend and someone I consider to be my financial mentor, so naturally I was a little sad to see one of my trade angles exposed to the world. Well, I’ve moved past that, and I’m here to add to his list a little bit. If you’re a binder grinder, these are great cards to target when you’re on the floor of a large event like a Starcity Open or Grand Prix. These also have a lower perceived value than their retail value right now. To be brief, I’ll just list their current values on Black Lotus Project and Magiccards.info mean value as we move on to the next section. These are all Modern cards, so their availability should be pretty good. They are listed in reverse order by set.

[card]Linvala, Keeper of Silence[/card]; Rise of the Eldrazi ($5.14 BLP / $6.34 Magiccards.info)

[card]Nissa Revane[/card]; Zendikar ($4.50 BLP / $6.71 Magiccards.info)

[card]Sen Triplets[/card]; Alara Reborn ($5.75 BLP / $5.21 Magiccards.info)

[card]Maelstrom Archangel[/card]; Conflux ($3.76 BLP / $4.70 Magiccards.info)

[card]Preeminent Captain[/card]; Morningtide ($3.89 BLP / $4.40 Magiccards.info)

[card]Door of Destinies[/card]; Morningtide ($6.35 BLP / $8.20 Magiccards.info)

[card]Timber Protector[/card]; Lorwyn ($4.58 BLP / $4.65 Magiccards.info)

[card]Darkness[/card]; Timeshifted ($2.50 BLP / $2.52 Magiccards.info)

[card]Erayo, Soratami Ascendant[/card]; Saviors of Kamigawa ($6.72 BLP / $7.70 Magiccards.info)

Be armed with this information, along with Jon’s, and know what to look for the next time you’re flipping through someone’s binder.

Q&A Session

Before the weekend started, I posted the following Tweet:

While I got a lot of questions, I can really only focus on just a few to keep this article at a good length. Luckily, the first three responses I got were extremely good. They were from Marshall Sutcliffe (@Marshall_LR]), host of the Limited Resources podcast, Chad McKenzie (@ChadBMcKenzie]), and Arturo Pineda (@OreoCorp]).

Question 1, Handling Foreign Cards

I’ll restate the question in case there are folks who can’t see the screenshot. Marshall’s concern focuses on how foreign cards are handled price-wise. He mentions that many dealers won’t buy them and that while the cards have value, they generate a different perception. Very quickly, let’s review a very general tier of languages. It’s a very condensed list, and doesn’t include differences between modern Korean versus old school Korean, Simplified Chinese and Traditional Chinese, and so forth. If I had to go through and rank all those, it might be another article entirely.

Highest: Russian, Korean, Japanese

Higher: German

Baseline: English

Lower: Chinese, other Romance Languages

From my experiences as a trader and seller, there is a very big supply versus demand gap between a foreign foil (newer cards) and foreign non-foil, or an FBB (foreign black border) card and FWB (foreign white border) card, and it’s this gap that will dictate the price. I use this knowledge to help me prepare for dealing in cards with foreign languages. The former card examples are the ones that will demand a higher premium. The prices of these cards will be dictated by the tiers in languages. Rarity times Language equals price multiplier.

The latter card examples are the ones to be careful about, which is what I assume Marshall is referring to. Especially true for newer sets where Wizards wants to branch the game as far as they can, the print runs of these cards will cause a higher spike in supply. These foreign non-foil cards may settle at the same price as the baseline English or even less. Assume that in the rest of this section when I refer to a foreign non-foil, that it is a card that could have a foil counterpart. I’m not referring to foreign Urza Block, Tempest Block, and so forth. These cards also have an issue distinguishing themselves from the baseline English version, a similar issue that FWB cards run into with English Revised. For this reason, I rarely know dealers who are willing to take in foreign bulk. It’s much harder to flip, and you can’t have this type of sunk investment.

My advice (and approach) on the foreign card situation is to be selective in what you choose to go for. The market can be a lot smaller than you think. Think out your outlets. What is the application of the cards you’re getting? Is it for yourself? How would you move this card; do you have a buyer lined up? I use some of these guidelines when I am flipping through a binder and trying to figure out what I want out of it.

Is it for a cube? FBB versions of cards that belong in a cube or old frame Korean/Japanese are good cards to target, as long as those cards don’t have a lot of reprints. Foreign foils can draw plenty of attention too, especially for someone looking to make their cube unique. Is it for a competitive player? It might fall right in the middle. Some players want to pimp out their decks, and would skip the foreign non-foil step right to getting foreign foils. Some players just want to play Magic. When you have those FWB or foreign non-foil cards, you might not move it unless you get lucky and hit a situation where a player has 10 minutes before the player meeting and needs to get it right away. Is it for a casual player? It might not be such a good idea to pick up foreign versions where players who might be unfamiliar with what cards do what. They also rarely care if something is foil or not. I’ve been burned on this type of situation before, where I went out of my way to pick up a playset of [card]Death Baron[/card]s, one of which was foil, only to have it turned down without an outlet.

Think about these the next time you run into a situation with foreign cards, and operate with selectivity.

Question 2, Business Model

Chad wants to know how to handle a trade situation where one person is acquiring or buying high end staples without making the other person feel like they “lost.” I’ll answer the tougher part of the questions first, which is the trade side of it. This situation is fairly natural in the game, when there’s trading up low priced staples for a higher priced card. I’ve traded as a vendor before, where I’ve demanded a premium for cards like Revised dual lands, Onslaught fetchlands, and other high priced staples. Maybe I can address this from the reverse side.

In cases like this, as the vendor side, I need to stick to my general business plan while keeping the eye on the prize. I obviously want value for my cards, which are harder to get than your average Standard staple. I also want more business in the future and perhaps an opportunity to develop a trade relationship. There are several ways to do this, with the basic goal to temper the price gap. First, I generally offer my staples around Magiccards.info mean (which is much lower than the highest industry price) instead of going for the industry high. This is a way to promote a more comfortable atmosphere between you and your trade partner. Show him that you can be flexible with your prices. You can’t go down too low, but you can offer to work with it.

Because I have the higher demanded staple, I have to get some value. This is basically setting your buylist values. As a second rule, I try to scale these buylist values. I tend to start at around 50% of the value for basic Standard cards, and go up from there as I get closer to chase cards or Eternal staples. I’m never going to get something like a [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] for $12.50 in buylist value, and I know that, and there’s no reason to offend my trade partner. In my example, I would try to offer around $17-18 instead. Most people are okay with that if they’re getting a Revised dual in return. The last thing and optional thing to do is to offer a trade-in bonus. If I’m trading a lot of things, such as a full playset of Revised [card]Tundra[/card]s, the difference in value is geometric. It also helps in the future as you build relationships and network, as it distinguishes you from the other people who are grinding down their cards. For the first and second points, you can easily reciprocate this from the buyer’s standpoint. You can definitely be flexible on your lower priced staples, and you can haggle with your trade partner. Trading up is not a bad thing, but understand that it’s not as common as a simple card swap, and that it’s not an unfair thing to do to add some value on your side.

I have the same strategy when I buy cards, like I did this weekend. More common staples are easy to refill in your stock, so it’s okay to offer around 50-55% of what you’re planning to sell it for. As an example, I bought a Near Mint [card]Polluted Delta[/card] this weekend, which we added to our stock, for $31. Our selling model put the card at $39, which meant I bought at 79.5% of what we were planning to sell it for. The customer was incredibly happy, and so were we for being able to replenish our stock. To make sure no one “loses,” adjust your buy prices so that you can respect the scarcity of a staple.

 Question 3, Inventory Management

Arturo has a two part question. He wants to know when to pull the trigger on scarce promos, and how much stockpiling Standard manabases is too much stockpiling. Promos will generally have high prices when they’re first released from a widespread demand for them, but dip in price when the market reaches equilibrium. But with most promos, they’re only printed once, and will eventually see a price rise as supply dwindles. My basic approach with these promos is similar to how I approach foreign cards; know your outlet first. When they are released, if I’m given the opportunity to obtain one of these promos, I will track one down to conduct business with. These move better at large events, since the potential clientele is limited locally. Don’t pull the trigger too late into the release period, because you might get burned by demand getting fulfilled.

Promos will see a dip in price once the market settles for them, but as all older cards do, copies will be taken out of the market, and eventually there will be a price rise. Try to note what the buy price for these foils are once the market settles, and when the price finally dips to around that, if you feel like making a long term investment, I’d pull the trigger on it. As for stockpiling manabases in Standard, I look back at my Block Constructed example with [card]Hellrider[/card], [card]Instigator Gang[/card], and [card]Clifftop Retreat[/card]. What does the future look like?

I learned this concept from none other than Jon Medina’s Tactical Trade Team, which I had an opportunity to participate in at SCG Open Lousiville last May. One of the huge targets going into that event was the Scars of Mirrodin dual lands, which were around $2-4 each at that point. No one wanted them, and why would they? There were fetchlands, Worldwake manlands, M10 Duals, and Scars of Mirrodin duals. Manabases were incredibly stable. But when Zendikar block left Standard, all of the sudden, manabase stability got a lot weaker. This eventually caused the rise in prices of the Scars duals. Hoarding those lands was a very good investment strategy, and selling a stack [card]Seachrome Coast[/card]s after the price spike had never felt better.

In our case now, the future is full of questions after M12 rotates out. If we want to build diverse manabases to play multiple colored decks, we need dual lands. In the dark, before M13 is released, I would look into getting more Innistrad duals in my trade stock. It’s not going to be drafted forever, especially when Avacyn Restored is a standalone set. At some point, people will need Innistrad duals to be the building block of their manabases, and prices for them will naturally increase. Hoarding is okay, but understand that these types of lands are Rares, so there will be price limitations. [card]Seachrome Coast[/card] has a BLP value of $13.03 and Magiccards.info mean of $18.68, and is at the height of popularity in Standard, where decks with white define the format. It’s probably at its highest peak right now. In three months, when reality sets in, it will still have a high price memory, but people will be unloading them quickly. Unloading with a little over six months to rotation is safe, and if it has Eternal application you can hang on to them longer.

All right. Another article and a lot of content! Please feel free to leave any comments or feedback and I’ll definitely keep it in mind. I hope you enjoyed delving into my secrets.

Thanks for reading,

–Mark

@AllSunsDawn

chbe.sun@gmail.com

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