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Approaching a Delver Metagame

I may not have been playing Standard for as long as everyone else on the internet, but I definitely know how to spot a pattern.  At this time last year, the format was dominated by a midrangey blue-white control/tempo deck.  If you built Caw-Blade correctly for a particular weekend, you were going to be hard pressed to lose.

The issue is that, when there’s a clear best deck in the format, the deck has to start in-breeding to gain edges in the mirror.  In general, it’s really hard to make space for cards that crush the mirror without weakening matchups that were strong before.  That’s why we saw so many Caw Blades take T8s last season, with different weekends being punctuated by Valakut, or Vampires or Splinter Twin when too many blue-white players gave up too many percentage points in that matchup.

So let’s assume that we’ve identified the clear best deck in the format.  What, then, is the goal?  You want to assume that most people are going to be somewhere between last week’s tech and that they’ll have made some small changes to try to get an edge.  Our goal then is to get one step ahead of the average player; to anticipate the changes they’ll be making and be ready to beat up on that deck, as opposed to last week’s 75.  So let’s take a look at how the best deck in the format has changed over two weeks, to see if we can get an idea of where it’s headed next.

[deck title=Restoration Delver – Gerry Thompson]
[Creatures]
4 Delver of Secrets
3 Restoration Angel
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Geist of Saint Traft
[/creatures]
[Artifacts]
2 Sword of Feast and Famine
[/artifacts]
[Instants]
2 Dismember
1 Divine Offering
1 Gut Shot
4 Mana Leak
2 Thought Scour
4 Vapor Snag
[/instants]
[Sorceries]
3 Gitaxian Probe
4 Ponder
[/sorceries]
[Lands]
4 Glacial Fortress
3 Moorland Haunt
4 Seachrome Coast
9 Island
2 Plains
[/lands]
[Sideboard]
2 Ratchet Bomb
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
2 Consecrated Sphinx
3 Phantasmal Image
1 Divine Offering
1 Amass the Components
3 Timely Reinforcements
2 Ghost Quarter
[/sideboard]
[/deck]

If this was the terror of the format last week, what are some things that you would have expected to see this week to compensate?  Well, Restoration Angel was supposed to be your big trump, both in the GR matchups and in the mirror.  Four toughness is just incredibly difficult to deal with.  Similarly, you have a very dynamic maindeck and sideboard which lets you choose whether you want to be the beatdown or control deck in any particular matchup.

The strength of this kind of approach is that all of your cards are individually powerful, and that you can adapt your gameplan so that you are in a favorable position against any particular deck or opponent.  The issue is that this plan works much better when all the decks in the format are sort of midrangey, and less well when there are more defined poles.

Consequently, what you’d expect to see is that Delver decks are going to need a way to break through opposing [card]Restoration Angel[/card]s, either [card]Mutagenic Growth[/card], [card]Sword of War and Peace[/card], or even just going back to the [card]Invisible Stalker[/card] plan.  You also would expect to see Delver decks either going a little bigger or a little smaller than this one, so that you have a clear and advantaged role in the pseudo-mirror.  To reiterate, we’re anticipating trumps to [card]Restoration Angel[/card] and some kind of jockeying for position in the mirror.  Let’s take a look at this weekend’s SCG results:

[deck title= Restoration Delver – Matt Hoey]
[Creatures]
4 Delver of Secrets
3 Restoration Angel
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Geist of Saint Traft
[/creatures]
[Artifacts]
2 Sword of War and Peace
[/artifacts]
[Instants]
1 Dismember
2 Gut Shot
4 Mana Leak
1 Mutagenic Growth
1 Thought Scour
4 Vapor Snag
[/instants]
[Sorceries]
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
[/sorceries]
[Lands]
4 Glacial Fortress
3 Moorland Haunt
4 Seachrome Coast
9 Island
2 Plains
[/lands]
[Sideboard]
2 Consecrated Sphinx
3 Phantasmal Image
2 Celestial Purge
1 Dissipate
2 Divine Offering
1 Negate
1 Day of Judgment
3 Timely Reinforcements
[/sideboard]
[/deck]

[deck title=UW Delver – Jeff Rasmussen]
[Creatures]
3 Porcelain Legionnaire
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Geist of Saint Traf
[/creatures]
[Enchantments]
3 Spectral Flight
[/enchantments]
[Instants]
2 Dismember
1 Divine Offering
1 Gut shot
4 Mana Leak
2 Mutagenic Growth
2 Thought Scour
4 Vapor Snag
[/instants]
[Sorceries]
4 Ponder
2 Gitaxian Probe
[/sorceries]
[Lands]
8 Island
1 Plains
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Seachrome Coast
3 Moorland Haunt
[/lands]
[Sideboard]
2 Ratchet Bomb
1 Sword of Feast and Famine
2 Sword of War and Peace
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
3 Phantasmal Image
1 Divine Offering
1 Revoke Existence
2 Timely Reinforcements
2 Ghost Quarter
[/sideboard
[/deck]

What do we see in these two lists that seems like a natural evolution as a way to gain an edge over last week’s Restoration Delver builds?  [card]Mutagenic Growth[/card] seems like the big winner, seeing as it lets you force Delvers, Angels, and Geists through opposing Angels.  You can surprise people by turning what looks like a trade into a way for you to get ahead on the board.

We also saw a shift away from [card]Sword of Feast and Famine[/card], which is fine in the mirror, but mostly good against the midrangey green decks of the format.  Instead, we saw cards with higher impact in the mirror, and against slower control decks, like [card]Sword of War and Peace[/card] and [card]Spectral Flight[/card].

Really, it’s just condensing the mana curve and finding a way to go bigger than [card]Restoration Ange[/card].  So if this is what happens this week, what are some things we can expect to see in the coming weeks?  I wouldn’t be surprised to see [card]Angelic Destiny[/card] show up as a singleton in some sideboards as a straight up switch for Swords after opponents board in [card]Ancient Grudge[/card].

When/If we see a return to [card]Day of Judgment[/card] over [card]Slagstorm[/card] and [card]Whipflare[/card], I expect to see more [card]Invisible Stalker[/card] lists that just ignore [card]Restoration Angel[/card], and which have a much more defined role in the mirror.

Last, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some number of [card]Unsummon[/card] making the sideboard to complement the [card]Vapor Snag[/card]s for the mirror.  The mirror is all about tempo, and blowing people out once they go for their Sword, Equip or [card]Mutagenic Growth[/card], and [card]Unsummon[/card] is pretty reasonable at that, so long as people haven’t gone back to [card]Invisible Stalker[/card].

That said, none of this has happened yet, and we’ve probably got a good two or three weeks before the metagame comes back full-circle to [card]Invisible Stalker[/card].  Until that point, we’ve got an aggressive metagame defined by four toughness creatures.  How does that affect what cards I want to be looking to play?  Well, let’s start by thinking about what gets worse.  [card]Slagstorm[/card], [card]Whipflare[/card], and [card]Incinerate[/card] take huge hits, since they no longer hit all of the threats that the Delver decks are playing.  There are certainly measures that can be taken to minimize the problems this causes, but on its face that’s still a pretty big deal.

Similarly, [card]Garruk Relentless[/card] becomes much worse in this metagame, since so many threats just straight up trade with Garruk.  I think he still has a place in mirrors with lots of mana guys for the same reasons Garruk crushed those mirrors in block.  For similar reasons, [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card] is much worse because the mana costs of creatures in Delver decks are higher and more spread out.  Before you could tick it up to two and just leave it there, preventing Pikes, Stalkers, Geists, and Swords.  Now what do you do to a [card]Restoration Angel[/card]?

[card]Tamiyo, the Moon Sage[/card] is the last card that I really liked before this weekend that’s probably pretty awful at this point.  Sure, you can lock down a flipped Delver or a [card]Moorland Haunt[/card], but the deck has a high enough density of flash creatures now that I don’t think this is a reasonable card to include.  It’s still a sweet card against Ramp and Control, and it may find a place in Delver mirrors, but I don’ think it’s very good against the metagame right now.

The real question isn’t “what gets worse?” though; the thing that we want to know is what gets better.  Here’s how I think the metagame will shift in the next two weeks.  We’ll see people cutting back on red cards, Planeswalkers, and other midrangey do-nothings.  The format is going to polarize into aggro decks trying to race Delver, and control and ramp decks trying to go over the top.  Here are the cards I think we’ll see a rise in:

 The first two sets of cards are pretty straightforward.  Efficient, flexible removal has always been the key to a good Delver matchup.  [card]Combust[/card] is a big deal because it’s uncounterable, but it still gets trumped by [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card].  Because of that, I think that [card]Combust[/card] is much better in an aggressive deck than a Ramp deck.

[card]Crushing Vines[/card] and [card]Stingerfling Spider[/card] are pretty exciting though, because these give green midrangey decks ways to interact favorably with Delver.  You have a brick wall that doesn’t care about [card]Vapor Snag[/card] and a flexible instant-speed removal spell.  Considering that most lists will be cutting back on [card]Sword of Feast and Famine[/card], I think that these may be the tools that keep the green decks competitive in the coming weeks.

More interesting are the archetypical cards that are going to be getting better in the coming weeks.  [card]Lingering Souls[/card] seems insane against these decks, as long as you build your deck with answers to [card]Sword of War and Peace[/card].  Until Delver decks make the switch back to [card]Invisible Stalker[/card], [card]Lingering Souls[/card] buys you infinite time to set up your six drops, or to find Anthems and [card]Drogskol Captain[/card] to trump their fliers.

The thing is, we’ve seen this before.  When midrangey Delver decks get too good, people move to the Esper builds because those crush the mirror.  Because of that, I think we’ll see a good number of [card]Corrosive Gale[/card] and [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card] in sideboards anticipating the rise of [card]Lingering Souls[/card].

One thing that I’m excited to watch over the coming weeks is a rise in [card]Sun Titan[/card] decks.  Immediately after Avacyn Restored everyone was saying that [card]Cavern of Souls[/card] in ramp decks would define the format, and we haven’t really seen that come to fruition.  That said, I do think that [card]Cavern of Souls[/card] and [card]Sun Titan[/card] could be the interaction that ends up defining this format.  Traditionally, the [card]Sun Titan[/card] decks have all the tools to crush delver, and enough tools out of the sideboard to beat other decks in the format.

Most wrath-based control decks are going to have a difficult time dealing with the volume of Flash creatures in the Delver decks now, but the combination of [card]Sun Titan[/card] and [card]Phantasmal Image[/card] and [card]Fettergeist[/card] let you trump even [card]Restoration Angel[/card].  In fact, [card]Restoration Angel[/card] actually makes it safer to try to chain [card]Phantasmal Images[/card] when you slam your [card]Sun Titan[/card].  You can image their [card]Restoration Angel[/card] to make sure you have a blocker and just flicker your [card]Sun Titan[/card] to get the extra activations, rather than going all in and hoping they don’t have [card]Vapor Snag[/card].

The last card I’m interested to see what happens with is [card]Daybreak Ranger[/card].  This seems to be a card that ought to be well positioned right now, but is just so easily blown out in most match-ups that it isn’t worth it.  A flipped [card]Daybreak Ranger[/card] is going to dominate in just about every matchup except against ramp, since you just eat pretty much every creature in the format.  The issue is that there’s so much instant speed removal like [card]Vapor Snag[/card] and [card]Galvanic Blast[/card] get you when you try to flip him.  That said, he is another pseudo trump in the Huntmaster fights that RG decks can get into, and the effect is certainly powerful.  Maybe this means that [card]Ulvenwald Tracker[/card] is the card we’re looking for?

So there are a few non-delver decks that I’m looking at as ways to attack the metagame from a different angle.  This is a metagame that rewards resilient threats that you can make absolutely gigantic, which means there’s going to be an upswing in control decks with wraths and unconditional removal.  The first place I’m going is an Esper control deck:

[deck title=Solar Flare]
[Creatures]
3 Phantasmal Image
3 Sun Titan
[/creatures]
[Artifacts]
1 Batterskull
1 Ratchet Bomb
1 Pristine Talisman
[/artifacts]
[Instants]
3 Forbidden Alchemy
1 Thought Scour
1 Go for the Throat
1 Dismember
1 Negate
1 Mana Leak
[/instants]
[Sorceries]
2 Day of Judgment
2 Terminus
3 Ponder
4 Lingering Souls
1 Unburial Rites
[/sorceries]
[Planeswalkers]
2 Gideon Jura
1 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
[/Planeswalkers]
[Lands]
2 Island
3 Plains
2 Swamp
2 Darkslick Shores
2 Drowned Catacomb
2 Evolving Wilds
1 Ghost Quarter
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Isolated Chapel
3 Seachrome Coast
[/lands]
[Sideboard]
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Divine Offering
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Ratchet Bomb
1 Purify the Grave
1 Nihil Spellbomb
3 Fettergeist
2 Cavern of Souls
1 Celestial Purge
[/sideboard]
[/deck]

I think something like this ought to have a very good matchup against GR and Delver, and have all of the tools to beat up on any random decks you may run into.  You’re a little over-reliant on copying [card]Primeval Titan[/card] to find [card]Ghost Quarter[/card]s against ramp, but I think that’s just going to be the case. The thing that I like about this is that there’s so much flexibility, which is almost always the case for Esper decks.  You could easily run [card]Bloodline Keeper[/card] to crush Delver if you untap with it and a fast threat against ramp.  Similarly, [card]Sword of Feast and Famine[/card] is a perfectly reasonable card to sideboard; you’re always going to have guys, and if you can sink mana into it you can easily run away with the game.

That said, I think that eventually the deck that answers this particular metagame is going to be some kind of Grixis deck.  I don’t know what the list is going to look like, because that sort of deck is much harder to build.  You have better answers, but only to very particular threats.  It’s very easy to build a Grixis deck such that you have the wrong answer to the threat that they present.  It’s easy to draw [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] instead of [card]Pillar of Flame[/card] against their [card]Strangleroot Geist[/card], or [card]Pillar of Flame[/card] instead of [card]Whipflare[/card] against [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card].  The biggest upside, I feel, is that you get to play a copy of [card]Geistflame[/card], which is a tremendously undervalued card right now.  The ability to pick off mana guys and Delvers early, and Spirit Tokens and [card]Inkmoth Nexus[/card] later on makes it a super powerful singleton in any red-based control decks.

The deck that I’m the most excited to try out, and which I’ll be running at our GPTs this weekend, is a mono-green deck that I think is pretty well positioned for this format.  I’ve already burned through most of my word count for this week, and it’s a really rough list right now, but here’s what I’ve got:

[deck title=Mono Green Pod]
[Creatures]
1 Ulvenwald Tracker
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Avacyn’s Pilgrim
4 Strangleroot Geist
2 Wolfir Silverheart
4 Dungrove Elder
4 Phyrexian Metamorph
2 Borderland Ranger
1 Primeval Titan
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
[/creatures]
[Artifacts]
2 Sword of War and Peace
1 Sword of Feast and Famine
2 Birthing Pod
[/artifacts]
[Sorceries]
4 Green Sun’s Zenith
[/sorceries]
[Lands]
1 Slayer’s Stronghold
21 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
[/lands]
[Sideboard]
1 Stingerfling Spider
3 Crushing Vines
3 Triumph of Ferocity
1 Tree of Redemption
1 Acidic Slime
2 Zealous Conscripts
1 Viridian Corrupter
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Sword of Feast and Famine
[/sideboard]
[/deck]

This is a deck I’m excited to try out; I think it matches up pretty well against the metagame right now.  [card]Dungrove Elder[/card] seems like a gigantic beating in the GR mirrors. It’s almost impossible for Delver decks to beat once they’ve switched to [card]Sword of War and Peace[/card], and it’s just a monster for Control decks to try to deal with.  People are starting to try to go bigger with [card]Wolfir Silverheart[/card] and [card]Zealous Conscripts[/card], and I think this beats that in the pseudo-mirror.

Against delver, I don’t know how they beat the combination of [card]Ulvenwald Tracker[/card] and [card]Dungrove Elder[/card].  [card]Vapor Snag[/card] is usually how they turn a race to their favor, and your deck is all but immune to that card, so I feel like that match-up should be pretty insane as well.  This build almost certainly has a lot more trouble against control than traditional RG aggro, but you still have the same kind of nut draws, and should be able to steal a reasonable number of games because so many of your cards are just very powerful, even if they match up poorly.

Now that I’ve gone way over my word count, I’m interested in hearing what you have to say about the Delver menace.  Where do you think things are going next?  I’m definitely excited to find out!

Carlos

@cag5383 on Twitter

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