Well, it’s been another three months, and we have another set coming out. I always feel like the Magic community is a pretty lucky group of individuals in that they get four additional Christmases a year now, even if getting the Titans back in M12 was more like coal in our stockings. While I think Dark Ascension as a set certainly doesn’t have a high EV, it will definitely shake up all of the Constructed formats that we play. With the prices of the set inflated from preorders, I thought we would go over what I believe will be affected on the financial scene, so that you can continue to stay financially beneficial. But, a small aside before I begin:
Lately, I’ve been a little more focused on the financial side of Magic, receiving special opportunities to work with some vendors local to me. One of these vendors is my close friend, Matt Kranstuber, who has given me opportunities to work as a buyer for his business. I will say, it’s definitely a whole new world sitting on the other side of a booth and offering money for peoples’ cards. Before an event there is a lot of careful coordination, ranging from what cards (and how many of each) you need for your booth/store to function during the event to what prices you’re putting on your stock. Can you match the demand at a Standard event? Will you have hot cards like [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card] or [card]Sword of War and Peace[/card] on hand? If you have ten of each in your inventory, how many more, if any, do you need?
At the end of that list, I believe you reach the hardest part, which is setting your buy prices and quantities. The internet age is among us, and a majority of players have access to smart phones. This means that even if you’re the only vendor at an event, you still have to compete with everyone else just the same. That said, this Saturday, like the Innistrad Pre-Release, with the elimination of regional events, my LGS (local gaming store), Comic Town in Columbus, Ohio, was flooded. We broke well a hundred people… and even had to invade the next door Subway for a couple of hours!
With so many people in an event where we didn’t plan for such volume, the buys that you make have to be a lot more targeted and a lot more focused. This makes sure everyone has a chance to make a deal with you and feel like they’re involved in your business. I had already created a couple of spreadsheets focusing on Standard, which I figured was the best thing to focus on in this type of situation. It is the most popular format and the prices are driven by large scale national success, mainly events like Star City Games Opens. Legacy is similar, but is not so hugely affected, since it isn’t gaining 15%+ of its card pool in one weekend. My article today is about what cards I tried to focus my buying on and why you should look to get them before any potential Top 16’s get posted at Richmond this weekend.
The most important thing to remember about adding this new set in is that because large events like Star City Games Opens are likely to occur on Release weekend, is that you have seven days from the Pre-Release to get what you need, before risking a very volatile price increase. I’m not really talking about the Dark Ascension cards; those are already pretty high from Preorder hype and so forth. What about everything else? Mythics can spike at a given moment. Dollar bins are all of the sudden cannibalized. At the time of this article, we probably only have 3-4 days to prepare.
What does Dark Ascension offer? This is the most important, but basic question for the set. I’m sure that you’ve heard everyone talk about [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] so I’ll spare you from another section about it. But besides that, here’s my take on what the new set offers, and what cards they’re going to be affecting. I won’t even use an 8-ball! Are you ready?
#1) Token Strategies
This is kind of a no-brainer for the set, since we’re gaining cards like [card]Sorin, Lord of Innistrad[/card], [card]Lingering Souls[/card], and [card]Gather the Townsfolk[/card], in a format where we already have access to eight 2-mana anthem effects. It also gains [card]Vault of the Archangel[/card], which is the better of the two rare utility lands out of the set and in the running for the best in the block so far. [card]Moorland Haunt[/card] probably still has that honor, but by a very small margin. There will be people who want to play the deck, and people who want to fight it. This opens up a great opportunity for an increase in card demand. Some rares I paid more attention to this weekend because of this:
Champion of the Parish
Since I don’t want to necessarily align with any one store, I’m going to use the secondary market, particularly eBay, to address all of my comparison needs. The Black Lotus Project (http://blacklotusproject.com/) compiles most of these prices and gives a good estimate of what the average closing price is. While it’s not as useful for older cards (due to condition and low frequency of purchase), it’s great for evaluating the secondary market value of a newer set. [card]Champion of the Parish[/card] started off selling for approximately $4.00/ea, and quickly plummeted, as most new cards do, to a nadir of $2.27/ea at the beginning of January. It has started to make its comeback, and has slowly risen to $2.81/ea. An increase like that seems insignificant, but consider that most decks play four copies, and those small increases do add up in multiples. It saw play UW Humans like Craig Wescoe’s build that Top 16’ed GP Orlando, and now has its potential increased with the new token support cards.
My take: If UW Humans is still a contender (there is no reason it won’t be), then introducing W/x tokens to the format will increase the demand for this card. Taxing countermagic like [card]Mana Leak[/card] is not great against it, and it will put up a fight against the [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] decks. I can see this card in a similar level to [card]Mirran Crusader[/card].
Curse of Death’s Hold
Bulk Rare. Limited Bomb. Potential sideboard staple? We all know how good this card is in Limited, but we have to choose between Bulk Rare and sideboard staple. When you have a new archetype entering the format, you have to consider possible answers. With [card]Curse of Death’s Hold[/card], you have the positive of it being a permanent and continuous effect on the battlefield. But you also have the negative of only having a card that gives -1/-1 against eight anthem effects. People obviously have faith in it 3BB to fight 1W doesn’t seem fair, does it? How about something that will have a similar effect for XBB?
Black Sun’s Zenith
It’s tough to imagine that [card]Black Sun’s Zenith[/card] was just a little over $2.00 before Innistrad’s release. It’s seen a pretty steep rise since the beginning of January (see a trend here?), and is now averaging $3.43/ea at closing on eBay. Its effect for XBB does a job similar to what [card]Curse of Death’s Hold[/card] does against tokens, but is more flexiable since you can choose how much you want to pay for X. No anthem effects out or you have an answer to them? Pay 1. Things getting out of hand? Pay more. It is reusable, shuffling back in your library after use. However, it doesn’t answer instant speed token generators like [card]Midnight Haunting[/card] very well, and doesn’t do a great job against value cards like [card]Doomed Traveler[/card] or [card]Loyal Cathar[/card].
Ratchet Bomb
Mainly a choice if your deck can’t support the above two answers or cards like [card]Whipflare[/card] and [card]Slagstorm[/card], [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card] gives non-red, non-black decks an answer to this archetype as well. Two counters on it answers anthems, zero counters answers hordes of tokens. It also gets a little bit of application in Modern. While I haven’t seen a significant trend on The Black Lotus Project for [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card], vendors have definitely taken notice. I have seen most vendors increase their buy prices on [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card], and trying to beat the new buy price of $3.00 was not too pleasing over the weekend.
My take on the three: I think the latter two are for real in a vacuum, and that [card]Curse of Death’s Hold[/card] is the imposter out of the pack. In a combination, I could see these cards effective together (for example, [card]Black Sun’s Zenith[/card] followed by [card]Curse of Death’s Hold[/card]), but those game situations aren’t necessarily practical. I focused mainly on the [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card]s this weekend, as I feel it is the most versatile against a range of archetypes.
And we move forward to the Mythic Rares! Here are two that I paid attention to this weekend:
Mikaeus, the Lunarch
[card]Mikaeus, the Lunarch[/card] is a particularly interesting card. It was spoiled in From the Vault: Legends, so its alternate printing will have a negative impact on its value. It started fairly high for a Mythic, but has dipped below $3.00, leveling out around $2.89. But knowing the number of Mythics relative to the regular rares and the high volatility of Mythic Rare prices, I feel like this card is worth picking up. It’s a great way to fight the mirror match when you have a ticking extra anthem effect; I see it as a slower [card]Ajani Goldmane[/card] -2 ability (which combined with [card]Intangible Virtue[/card] it is; build your own Planeswalker effect!). It’s tutorable by [card]Ranger of Eos[/card] in formats where both are legal. It’s also great in casual and useable Commander general, even if [card]Rhys the Redeemed[/card] can edge it out of its spot.
My take: I offered $2.00 and $2.50 aggressively this weekend just to have them in stock, and no one sold me their copies. I don’t think those encounters were flukes based on the other cards I bought from them. If you can still get them for cheap, I would go for it. At the very least, for the reasons that I mentioned, your gamble will break even.
Massacre Wurm
I have to give a shout out to Quiet Speculation writer and friend Mike Lanigan for giving out the tip. I’ve been thinking about [card]Massacre Wurm[/card]’s potential for a little bit now and I haven’t pulled the trigger on it until Mike started talking about it. The reason that it’s different from the other sweepers in black is that it leaves behind a 6/5 body with an interesting effect for value. Right now their eBay closings are literally the same as their retail price around $3.00, but major retailers that were stockpiling them have risen those prices a tad. [card]Massacre Wurm[/card] likely has no potential in any Eternal formats, but it will always have a casual and Commander appeal, so if it does see play in Standard, there will be a significant price increase.
My take: I would pick these up around $3.00 in trade if you can. The same general logic applies to Mikaeus. It’s not an unusable Mythic Rare and it’s not narrow in utility so you have something to fall back on.
#2) Keyword Themed Strategies
I wasn’t sure how to clump this section together, but I think Keyword Themed Strategies works. We gained two interesting keywords that have interactions with previous Standard cards or archetypes. Let’s start with Undying, which is pretty much the reverse Persist. One of my favorite cards in this set is [card]Strangleroot Geist[/card], and I hope it sees play in the upcoming months.
Birthing Pod
[card]Birthing Pod[/card] has already seen one spike, but Innistrad brought [card]Ancient Grudge[/card] and it quickly dropped in popularity. Is it still playable? Is it still going to be washed up? Well, regardless, [card]Birthing Pod[/card] is the definition of value creatures, and Undying fits that description pretty well. So does [card]Massacre Wurm[/card]. From Dark Ascension, [card]Vorapede[/card] is very interesting, and will likely see a little bit more love once the Titans make an exit from Standard during the summer. The price has been on the steady decline, and has leveled out around $3.48/ea. It seems like right now would be a good time to pick them up.
Surgical Extraction
If you want to fight Undying, the most basic types of answers are general graveyard hosers. Prior to Dark Ascension, in Standard it was either [card]Surgical Extraction[/card] or [card]Nihil Spellbomb[/card]. Even with [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] in the format, [card]Surgical Extraction[/card] still has the potential to see significant play. It has extra value with [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card] and doesn’t have to be solely targeted to card with graveyard/library interactions. Its Phyrexian mana cost has made it one of the go-to graveyard hate choices in all four major Constructed formats. I mentioned this in my last article and I still stand behind it; even with the Buy-a-Box Promo, it’s still closing at almost $20/set on eBay.
Hex Parasite
Here’s a rare from a third set of a block that has the ability to interact with two mechanics in Dark Ascension. [card]Hex Parasite[/card] can remove the +1/+1 counter gained by Undying so you can re-buy another creature. The more interesting interaction it has with Dark Ascension is the ability to get active Fateful Hour in a hurry. We already have theoretical builds out there with turn one Hex Parasite, pay 15, turn two [card]Gather the Townsfolk[/card], turn three [card]Thraben Doomsayer[/card], 18 you. It also has its own tutor in the format via [card]Trinket Mage[/card] (which fits better into [card]Birthing Pod[/card] decks than Fateful Hour decks).
#3) Tribal Wars!
The last section of cards that I focused on was cards with tribal themes. We got some 3cc lords in Dark Ascension, and although there isn’t as heavy of tribal support as in, say, Lorwyn, it still reminds me of the cycle of lords in that set. Most of the UW cards are already high like [card]Seachrome Coast[/card] and [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card], which interact well with [card]Drogskol Captain[/card]. Some other cards that I highlighted:
Howl of the Nightpack
Since we gain [card]Immerwolf[/card] in this set along with a potential 4cc bomb in [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card], as well as a 1cc Werewolf reminiscent of [card]Basking Rootwalla[/card] in [card]Wolfbitten Captive[/card], I think people will be pushed to make RG Werewolves happen. One of the cards that brings these creatures together is [card]Mayor of Avabruck[/card]. It’s a very cheap pickup and is the release promo for Innistrad, but has a lot of appeal in the 2cc slot. It’s hard to be behind a tribe that is cold to a [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card], but when Scars of Mirrodin Block rotates, I believe it will pay off. Make sure you get your [card]Copperline Gorges[/card] too. [card]Rootbound Crag[/card] has seen an additional printing from the Premium Slivers deck and is unlikely to rise much.
Braaaaaainssss!!!
When Innistrad was released, there were a lot of questions with how much support Zombies would see in a graveyard block. [card]Cemetery Reaper[/card] saw a temporary spike in price, but the hype died when all we got were [card]Diregraf Ghoul[/card] and a marginally playable [card]Ghoulcaller’s Chant[/card]. Well, with Dark Ascension [card]Gravecrawler[/card] and [card]Diregraf Captain[/card] were introduced to the format, along with an interesting removal spell in [card]Tragic Slip[/card]. I think these elements allows Zombies to also become a deck. [card]Zombie Apocalypse[/card] is cute, but most likely not playable due to its cost. Likewise with our previous tribe, look into grabbing [card]Drowned Catacomb[/card] and [card]Darkslick Shores[/card].
A Bump in the Night
This is the last tribe that I think gets a boost from Dark Ascension is of course, the Vampire tribe. It looks a lot different from B/R Vampires from Standard when Zendikar was legal, but there is a more playable lord in [card]Stromkirk Captain[/card], and a wild card via [card]Falkenrath Aristocrat[/card] from the new set. I’m not sure what to think about the Aristocrat at the moment, as it will have two other competing 4cc Vampires. [card]Olivia Voldaren[/card] will still be the go-to card against big creatures and Titans, which trumps opposing ramp and control strategies. As for [card]Bloodline Keeper[/card], because of cards like [card]Vapor Snag[/card] and how long it will take to set up the battle station, I don’t see it going up too much higher than it already is (although it has been making an impact on the casual market). The red archetypes will also gain [card]Torch Fiend[/card], which although not a Vampire, provides a great answer to Equipment, a staple in UW Delver and other current decks in Standard. While the blue pairs of M12-Fastland combinations are already pretty high and only likely to hold their price, [card]Dragonskull Summit[/card] and [card]Blackcleave Cliffs[/card] have both seen a more significant increase in the past couple of weeks.
All right, that’s all I have for this article. I hope your Pre-Releases went well and that your Release events go even better! Keep aware of what’s doing well in Standard over the weekend and these pickups. I’m looking forward to attending SCG Cincinnati myself next weekend, so if you plan on going come say hi!
Thanks for reading,
–Mark
@AllSunsDawn on Twitter
chbe.sun@gmail.com
Dubbed the Legacy Superstar, Mark Sun has been spending the past year trying to live up to his nickname. His biggest accomplishment to date was a top 8 finish at the 2011 Legacy Championships.