I used to be mediocre at Standard Constructed. I wanted to get better so I looked to my online poker background to improve. To become a winning online poker player, I reviewed my hand histories to determine the best play at each street. This gave me a growing mental database of the right plays for different poker situations. Also, I was able to see leaks in my game and correct them.
To apply this review process to Magic, I started playing rated matches on Magic-League.com and recording my matches with CamStudio, a free screencast software. After each match, I would review the games and go through each decision point to see if I made the right play.
This process helped immensely. I became familiar with common game situations and the right plays to make in those situations. My win rate and rating went up quickly. After a couple of weeks, I reached the top 50 leaderboard for Constructed and stayed there for a while until I switched from playing tier one decks to homebrews.
My skill translated to Magic Online. Over 130 matches in 2-Man Queues and Daily Events, I’ve sustained a 60%+ win rate on Magic Online. The win rate would probably be higher if I was playing tier one decks, but I like playing rogue and under the radar decks.
Last week, I played a game from a Daily that was more helpful than your average game. Oftentimes, I’ll have games where you really don’t learn much because the plays are pretty straightforward. But this one game was different. He flipped Delver of Secrets on turn two with Mana Leak so I knew he had a counterspell. Then, he cast Gitaxian Probe so he knew the contents of my three card hand. Because of these things, I had extra things to consider. With counterspells and Gitaxian Probe commonly seen in Standard tournaments, this game is particularly helpful for analysis.
I played Rob Dougherty’s BW Tokens from the Pro Tour while he was on UW Delver.
[deck title=BW Tokens]
[Creatures]
*4 Champion of the Parish
*4 Doomed Traveler
[/Creatures]
[Spells]
*4 Gather the Townsfolk
*4 Honor of the Pure
*4 Intangible Virtue
*4 Lingering Souls
*4 Midnight Haunting
*2 Sword of War and Peace
*3 Oblivion Ring
*2 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
*1 Elspeth Tirel
[/Spells]
[Lands]
*4 Isolated Chapel
*1 Shimmering Grotto
*13 Plains
*3 Swamp
*3 Vault of the Archangel
[/Lands]
[Sideboard]
*2 Revoke Existence
*1 Timely Reinforcements
*1 Go for the Throat
*2 Surgical Extraction
*1 Divine Offering
*1 Doom Blade
*3 Angelic Destiny
*4 Hero of Bladehold
[/Sideboard]
[/deck]
Let’s check it out the game. I made a bunch of mistakes but hopefully you can learn from them. I definitely looked at Magic different after this game.
Play by Play
On the play, I mulled a one-lander. He cast the first spell with Delver of Secrets on turn one. I had Doomed Traveler on turn two.
He flipped Delver of Secrets with Mana Leak, attacked for three, cast Ponder, did not shuffle, and played a Plains. That brought us to this game situation on his end step:
At this point, we know a couple things. Obviously, he had Mana Leak in hand. But notice that he cast Ponder (and did not shuffle) instead of playing a land and leaving Mana Leak mana open. This told me that he kept a one-lander and needed Ponder to find a second land. So, his hand was all spells.
I drew a Plains, attacked for one, cast Lingering Souls, and passed the turn. I could’ve cast Sword of War and Peace instead but Vapor Snag could’ve put me way behind on tempo.
He could have counter mana next turn so my plan was to cast Midnight Haunting on his turn. This would force him to tap his mana for Mana Leak on his turn if he wanted to counter it. If he countered it, that would allow me to resolve Sword of War and Peace or Lingering Souls from the graveyard on my turn.
He cast Gitaxian Probe so now he knew I had Sword of War and Peace, Midnight Haunting, and Elspeth Tirel.
I untapped and drew Champion of the Parish. Here was the board state:
At this point, we can put him squarely on a hand of seven spells. When he cast Ponder, he saw two spells and a land and moved the land to the top.
I was tempted to play Champion of the Parish but going with my original plan of casting Midnight Haunting on his turn was better.
If I cast Champion of the Parish, he probably wouldn’t counter. Instead, he’d save Mana Leak for Lingering Souls in the grave. Resolving Champion of the Parish would not really be that great because as a 1/1, Insectible Aberration would keep it from attacking. Also, I had no way to make it bigger right now.
So, I passed the turn.
He drew Seachrome Coast and passed the turn. I cast Midnight Haunting EOT and it resolved.
I drew another Plains on my turn. Here was the board state:
I cast Champion of the Parish because I could pay for Mana Leak. It resolved. Now here was the interesting question: Should I flashback Lingering Souls?
This is where knowing the common decklists is crucial. Midnight Haunting stopped seeing play in most UW Delver lists so I didn’t think he had it. I thought I could wait a turn to see if I drew a land to play around Mana Leak.
Without Midnight Haunting, he wouldn’t really have anything that could punish me at instant speed except two Vapor Snags. But the probability that he had two Vapor Snags is pretty low (around 17%) and I had a 40% chance (20/50) of drawing a land next turn. (I used this Excel spreadsheet to determine his probability.)
I passed the turn and he Vapor Snagged a token on my end step.
He drew another land and cast Invisible Stalker. I drew another Champion of the Parish, which brought us to this board state:
I cast Champion of the Parish and attacked with the 2/2 Champion. He went down to 15 life. I didn’t flashback Lingering Souls for the same reasoning from last turn.
He drew yet another land, attacked with Invisible Stalker, and shipped the turn.
I drew Intangible Virtue and that brought us to the most interesting play. Here was the board state.
I thought this was a straightforward probability play. If we assume that he had four counterspells in his deck, his chance of having two counterspells in hand was 17%, the same chance of him having two Vapor Snags from two turns ago because he drew two lands in his last two turns.
Therefore, I thought the play was flashbacking Lingering Souls. If he Mana Leaked it, I’d then cast Intangible Virtue.
Also, this play would keep him from rebuying Mana Leak this turn with Snapcaster Mage since he only had five mana.
When I flashbacked Lingering Souls, he countered it with Mana Leak as you can see below:
Now the question was: Can I put him on a second counterspell?
Based on odds alone, no. But based on the way he played, it looked like he had a second Mana Leak.
Here’s the evidence. He had four cards in hand, all spells. He didn’t cast anything on his last turn. No Ponder, Gitaxian Probe, Sword of War and Peace, Runechanter’s Pike, Snapcaster Mage. Nothing. We can rule out some of those cards. He would’ve cast Ponder, Gitaxian Probe, and Sword of War and Peace.
He definitely has a reason to leave open mana for two counterspells. I could draw a land and flashback Lingering Souls and cast Sword of War and Peace in the same turn.
He countered Lingering Souls even though I had Sword of War and Peace in hand and I could’ve drawn a land to cast it.
I was concerned about a second counterspell because Intangible Virtue is a pretty good card for my board and this matchup in general. If he had Mana Leak #2, I could play around it by drawing a land next turn. Even if I didn’t draw a land, I could draw a two-drop to bait his second counterspell so that I could resolve Intangible Virtue. If I drew a one-drop, that would be great because it would buff up both Champion of the Parishes.
So, I had a bunch of potential good draws next turn: 20 lands, 5 one-drops, and 11 two-drops. That’s 36 cards out of 48 cards left in the library. That’s a whopping 75% of the deck. You could probably even add Midnight Haunting to the list of good draws.
Of course, there are drawbacks to not casting Intagible Virtue. He could’ve gone Snapcaster Mage EOT and flashbacked Vapor Snag.
This play improves his board position but it’s still not too bad for me. I’d still have two Spirit tokens to block Insectile Abberation and more creatures on the board. Plus, that would mean he’s not flashing back Mana Leak so my spells would have a better chance of resolving.
Also, my read could be wrong. I would miss out on a dominant board position and give him an extra draw step to find a counterspell.
Each play has its pros and cons so I’m not sure what was the right play. What would you do?
Ok, back to the actual game. I only considered the odds and not his gameplay so I cast Intangible Virtue. He had Negate.
I attacked with the 2/2 Champion of the Parish and passed the turn.
He attacked with Invisible Stalker and shipped the turn.
I drew Isolated Chapel and that brought us to this board state:
Snapcaster Mage into Mana Leak was a definite possibility so I attacked with Champion of the Parish to see what he would do. He cast Snapcaster Mage to block and gave flashback to Vapor Snag.
This play should’ve told me that he had a counterspell in hand because he didn’t give flashback to the counterspells in the grave. Therefore, I should’ve just passed the turn and hoped to draw a land to play around Mana Leak next turn. Like the last situation, one-drops, two-drops, and Midnight Haunting were also good draws.
Unfortunately, in the heat of the battle, I did not recognize this. I cast Elspeth Tirel and he had a second Mana Leak.
After Vapor Snagging a token, he attacked with Invisible Stalker and cast Invisible Stalker #2.
I drew Midnight Haunting and the board state looked like this:
Midnight Haunting on his turn (or my turn if he tapped out EOT) was the safe play but I thought, there was no way he had a fourth counterspell. So, I cast Sword of War and Peace. Of course, he had Mana Leak #3.
What I should’ve realized is that he knew I had Sword of War and Peace from Gitaxian Probe. Based on the way he played last turn, what else could he have had but another counterspell? We can’t put him on Ponder, Gitaxian Probe, Sword of War and Peace, or Snapcaster Mage. Unless he was sandbagging lands and bluffing, he had to have a counterspell even though the odds disagreed. Bluffing was a possibility but from my experience, the vast majority of Magic players don’t bluff.
He attacked with both Invisible Stalkers and passed the turn.
I drew Oblivion Ring. Here was the board state:
At this point, I didn’t think he had a fifth counterspell in his hand. The odds of that are really low. He may not even have had a fifth counterspell main deck. If he had a Mana Leak, he wouldn’t have cast Invisible Stalker #2 last turn so as to have two Mana Leaks in case I drew a sixth land for Sword of War and Peace.
He probably didn’t have Snapcaster Mage either because if he had it, last turn he could’ve gone Snapcaster Mage into Ponder to look for an equipment card instead of playing Invisible Stalker #2. This play is reasonable because he needed equipment to keep up with me in case I drew a sixth land to pay for Mana Leak when I cast Sword of War and Peace.
Also, even if my read was wrong, playing Midnight Haunting on his turn is not that much better. He could counter Midnight Haunting with Snapcaster Mage + Mana Leak and I still would lose the race even if I Oblivion Ringed Insectile Aberration next turn.
So, I cast Oblivion Ring. It resolved. I exiled Insectible Aberration and swung for four damage.
He drew Snapcaster Mage. He played a sandbagged land, Seachrome Coast, and cast Snapcaster Mage to flashback Ponder. He shuffled with Ponder, attacked with both Invisible Stalkers and passed the turn.
I drew Doomed Traveler and cast it. He paid one blue to counter it with Mental Misstep. I attacked with everyone and he didn’t block. That brought us to this game state:
I decided to cast Midnight Haunting on his declare attackers step to ambush Snapcaster Mage but looking back, that play was too greedy. I didn’t need to give him outs. Fortunately, he didn’t draw a counterspell or another Snapcaster Mage and I was able to kill him the next turn after casting Gather the Townsfolk.
Victory!
Dee Barizo plays mostly Standard online and focuses on the technical play aspect on Magic. He blogs at Magic Game Plan.