Standard

Magic the Gathering Standard Analysis: Evolutions

StarCityGames Open Indianapolis (SCGINDY) took place last weekend and marks the third major tournament in this Magic the Gathering Standard season. I have analyzed the top 16 decks of the tournament and have some data, analysis, and observations to share about the developing metagame.

Deck Archetypes

To provide some context for the top cards played, here are the most common deck archetypes of the top 16 at SCGINDY:

  • 5 Jund Midrange
  • 4 UWR (2 Control, 2 Midrange)
  • 2 Reanimator (Frites)

The tale of the top 16 is best told by one deck emerging as a frontrunner, Jund Midrange, and one deck disappearing entirely, Zombies. Both archetypes had three decks in the top 16 at SCGPROV but went in opposite directions from there. The rise in midrange strategies that stabilize and build a strong board position quickly, coupled with removal aimed very directly at the walking dead, paint a clear picture as to why the Zombies decks were shut out in Indianapolis.

UWR decks have also returned, two of which traded some planeswalkers and [card]Entreat the Angels[/card] for a more aggressive mid-game with creatures like [card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card] and [card]Restoration Angel[/card]. These decks were labeled Midrange at the Open and when you throw in a Bant Midrange deck that’s half of the top 16 players going with a strong middle game strategy.

With this shift in mind let’s get into some analysis of the cards played in the top 16 decks at SCGINDY. Unless otherwise noted, the number of copies played will be listed in parentheses after the card name.

Creatures

The most played creatures in the top 16, broken down by maindeck and sideboard, are as follows:

For a third straight week [card]Thragtusk[/card] (44) dominates the battlefields of the top 16, an increase of sixteen copies from Providence. Four maindeck copies were played in eleven decks, every deck playing green other than GW Humans.

[card]Restoration Angel[/card] made her big comeback at SCGINDY, increasing from eight copies played in Providence to twenty-three. She appeared in Midrange decks playing white as well as Bant Control to play her usual role; flashing in to protect fellow creatures, applying a “surprise” block, or retriggering a handy enters the battlefield ability.

Let’s take a look at the other big increases and decreases in creatures between SCGPROV and SCGINDY (you can see my breakdown of SCGPROV here):

The spike in play for [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card] and [card]Olivia Voldaren[/card] is attributable to the proliferation of Jund Midrange decks in the top 16.

[card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card] saw an increase in play from two copies in a lone sideboard in Providence to eight in Indianapolis. This M13 Dragon is well placed to be a threat in Jund and UWR Midrange or a UR Tempo deck. With so much of the creature removal in the format at sorcery speed, [card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card] is likely getting in there for a hasty five points of damage the turn it is played. It taps down anything able to block it and kills [card]Lingering Souls[/card] (7) tokens that are unaided by [card]Intangible Virtue[/card] (0) or a similar buff. [card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card] outclasses [card]Falkenrath Aristocrat[/card] (0), [card]Restoration Angel[/card] (23), and [card]Entreat the Angels[/card] (2) tokens in the air and has a favorable matchup with [card]Olivia Voldaren[/card] (16) and [card]Sublime Archangel[/card] (3) on paper, though both can gain the upper hand. He just flies over almost everything else, [card]Angel of Serenity[/card] (14) being the most obvious exception.

The Zombies cards that once dominated the most played list: [card]Gravecrawler[/card], [card]Diregraf Ghoul[/card], [card]Geralf’s Messenger[/card], [card]Rakdos Cackler[/card], and [card]Falkenrath Aristocrat[/card], now populate the biggest decreases list with zero copies played. The largest non-Zombie decreases are [card]Arbor Elf[/card] (3) and [card]Entreat the Angels[/card] (2), both at -7.

This next graph shows the average number copies played in the maindeck and sideboard for each of the top creatures:

An interesting trend to note here is the transition of [card]Centaur Healer[/card] from a sideboard card at SCGPROV (1 main and 3 side on average) to a maindeck card in Indianapolis. The two Frites decks in the top 4 of the tournament played seven copies in the main between them as a way to stall until they can start rolling out their heavy hitters. The Bant control and midrange decks used a similar game plan.

Answers

Turning now to answers we will look at the most played removal and proactive answers in the top 16 at SCGINDY. Here is the removal:

[card]Pillar of Flame[/card] remains the top answer in the Standard metagame, increasing from twenty-six copies at Providence to forty-one at Indianapolis. It is of course a premier answer against Zombies as well as [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card] (24), which as noted is increasing in play with the popularity and success of Jund Midrange. I expect to see a modest reduction in the number of copies played as we move into SCG Open New Orleans next weekend as Jund and UWR pilots look for expendable slots to adjust to the changing metagame.

We now see three planeswalkers on this list with [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] and [card]Garruk Relentless[/card] joining [card]Tamiyo, the Moon Sage[/card], each with eleven copies. Tamiyo appears in all six decks playing blue and is a great way to tap down [card]Thragtusk[/card] (44) and other threats. Liliana is played exclusively in the sideboards of Jund Midrange decks, primarily as a way to handle [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card] (16). Garruk appeared in six decks as additional creature control and to generate Wolf tokens to clog up the battlefield.

Let’s look at how many copies of these spells were played in the maindeck and sideboard:

There was not much of a change in average copies played, slight decreases in maindeck [card]Terminus[/card] and [card]Azorius Charm[/card], likely based on the anticipation of fewer Zombies to confront. Next week we will see not only a decrease in the number of [card]Pillar of Flame[/card] but also a shift to the sideboard as players focus their maindeck more toward Jund, Reanimator, and UWR.

Now here are the most played proactive answers:

[card]Dissipate[/card] saw a strong increase in play, from nine to fifteen copies, largely because it exiles the card it counters, making it ideal against reanimator strategies. Duress also doubled from six to twelve copies, likely replacing [card]Appetite for Brains[/card] in sideboards to more efficiently handle the threats of blue-based control decks.

Here is the breakdown of average copies played for these proactive answers:

The only significant trend here is the addition of [card]Syncopate[/card] (9) to the sideboard. At Providence six copies were played, all in the maindeck (average of 2 per). Counter magic is very strong right now, despite the rotation of [card]Mana Leak[/card], so I would expect this trend to continue, more on that later.

Now let’s take a look at the biggest increases and decreases in answers played at SCGINDY:

[card]Sever the Bloodline[/card] (19) is an excellent answer in the Jund Midrange decks against most creature threats. It can target all of the creatures played in the top 16 with the exception of [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card] (16), [card]Sigarda, Host of Herons[/card] (7), and [card]Knight of Glory[/card] (4). Its flashback cost of 5BB is reasonable in a Midrange deck, meaning a couple copies will go a long way and save some room in your deck. It is also great against Tokens decks and aggressive decks playing lots of multiples, like Zombies.

The drops in [card]Tragic Slip[/card] (2) and [card]Brimstone Volley[/card] (0) are directly attributable to the lack of Zombies decks in the top 16. Similarly, the decrease in Negate (9) reflects less UW control decks.

Metagaming

[card]Mana Leak[/card] may have rotated but counter magic is very good right now, the two UWR “Midrange” decks that finished sixth and seventh in the tournament played six and seven counters respectively. [card]Essence Scatter[/card] is an excellent card against Jund Midrange and Reanimator decks. It is an effective answer to [card]Thragtusk[/card] (44) as well as other creatures with inconvenient enter the battlefield abilities: [card]Centaur Healer[/card] (19), [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card] (24), [card]Restoration Angel[/card] (23), and [card]Angel of Serenity[/card] (14). It is also a good answer for hexproof creatures like [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card] (16) and [card]Sigarda, Host of Herons[/card] (7) that are difficult to remove once they have resolved.? Only three copies of [card]Cavern of Souls[/card] were played in Indianapolis, all in the GW Humans deck. Take advantage of this opening while it lasts, after SCG Open New Orleans the momentum will shift back toward playing Caverns.

[card]Izzet Charm[/card] is well positioned for inclusion in a UWR control or UR tempo deck. It can destroy targets like [card]Avacyn’s Pilgrim[/card] (8), [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card] (24), and [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] (16) at instant speed. It counters planeswalkers or a [card]Dreadbore[/card] (17) or [card]Detention Sphere[/card] (18) aimed at your own planeswalker. It is also handy in a counter spell battle against [card]Dissipate[/card] (15) or [card]Syncopate[/card] (9).

Jund Midrange decks play a lot of sorcery speed removal: [card]Pillar of Flame[/card] (41), [card]Dreadbore[/card] (17), [card]Mizzium Mortars[/card] (11), [card]Sever the Bloodline[/card] (19), and [card]Bonfire of the Damned[/card] (9). Two decks each played three copies of [card]Searing Spear[/card] (13) in the main, but otherwise the deck relies on its creatures and Keyrunes to block and then looks to remove threats at sorcery speed. This makes haste a powerful ability. I already mentioned [card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card] but also like [card]Zealous Conscripts[/card] (7) in the sideboard against Jund. Steal their [card]Thragtusk[/card] (44) or [card]Olivia Voldaren[/card] (16) and attack!

Andrew Alderson piloted a Jund Agro deck to twelfth place by exploiting this lack of instant speed removal. Andrew ran four [card]Strangleroot Geist[/card] and four [card]Dreg Mangler[/card] alongside Huntmaster and [card]Thragtusk[/card]. Two copies of [card]Rakdos Keyrune[/card] (19) added more creatures with pseudo haste. Later in the game scavenging the Mangler makes your Beast or Wolf token a legitimate threat, especially with a [card][card]Kessig Wolf[/card] Run[/card] (12) on the battlefield. I like how this deck targets the metagame.

Last comment on haste is including [card]Slayers’ Stronghold[/card] (0) in a Frites deck. Giving your [card]Angel of Serenity[/card] (14), [card]Griselbrand[/card] (3), [card]Olivia Voldaren[/card] (16), or [card]Thragtusk[/card] (44) haste and vigilance seems good against Jund and in the mirror.

More to Come

That’ll do it for this week’s article on SCGINDY. I will continue to look at the data throughout the week and will share some additional information on Twitter and in the comments of this article for those interested.

I would also like to hear your feedback on this column. If you have any suggestions on what I can do to make it more useful for your deck brewing and tuning efforts please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. I’ll be back next week with analysis and observations from SCG Open New Orleans. Thanks for reading!

Nick Vigabool (@MrVigabool)

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