I picked up my cards to start game two and this is what I saw: [card]Plains[/card], [card]Plains[/card], [card]Fiendslayer Paladin[/card], [card]Fiendslayer Paladin[/card], [card]Arbor Elf[/card], [card]Thragtusk[/card], and [card]Ajani, Caller of the Pride[/card]. Hmmm…. This could either go off or leave me sitting dead in the water.
My first thought was, “If I draw a green source, I’m looking pretty good.” Usually, when deciding to keep hand, if I think, “I only need to draw…” then I ship it back and try for a better six, especially when I’m on the play. However, I was having a much harder time throwing this hand back than I normally would.
I mentally removed [card]Thragtusk[/card], figured that I would keep that six if it came up, and decided I would give it a try. The game was over before it even began.
I didn’t hit a third land until turn four when I drew another [card]Plains[/card]. This gave my opponent one too many turns to set up, and I couldn’t make up the ground. After the match was over, I wasn’t sure if I had just been unlucky or if I had been too greedy. Looking back, I should have relied on a fresh six cards instead of hitting a timely land drop.
Learning When to Mulligan
Mastering the mulligan can be difficult. It takes a good understanding of your deck as well as your opponent’s. Seeing as this is learned through a lot of trial and error, it can be hard for both newer and regular players to figure out this aspect of the game. So what are the things you are looking for when you are deciding to keep or ditch a hand? Here are five rules that I try and follow:
1) Is your mana base playable? If you have a lot of spells that require two or more of the same color and you don’t have that second source, you should probably try again.
2) Can you stay in the game early? If you only have two lands but your spells are all expensive to cast, then it’s a good idea to ship the hand. However, if you can still do something during the first few turns, then keeping may not be a horrible idea.
3) How much better or worse could your six be? Try imagining your hand without different cards and decide if you would keep a certain six. If you feel it’s a decent six, you could be hurting yourself if you mulligan. Few things hurt worse in magic then having to mulligan a couple times and realizing that the original hand was playable.
4) What is your opponent playing? Sometimes you can be rewarded by keeping an optimistic hand if you don’t think your opponent’s deck will punish you for it. At the same time, you may be more inclined to mulligan a hand that you’re on the fence about if you know that your opponent will make life miserable for keeping it.
5) Are you on the play or draw? This can ultimately be the deciding factor when deciding to try your hand or throw it back. For example, if your hand will work well as long as you hit a land, keeping the hand while you’re on the draw may not be a bad idea. You now have that extra turn to get what you need.
When I’m staring down a possible mulligan, I generally take those steps in that order while making my decision. Let’s see if I followed my own rules when I kept the hand I mentioned earlier on.
[card]Plains[/card], [card]Plains[/card], [card]Fiendslayer Paladin[/card], [card]Fiendslayer Paladin[/card], [card]Arbor Elf[/card], [card]Thragtusk[/card], [card]Ajani, Caller of the Pride[/card].
1) Although I didn’t initially have the green source to play [card]Arbor Elf[/card] or [card]Thragtusk[/card], I could still play both Fieendslayer Paladins and Ajani if I hit a land. If I happened to draw a [card]Forest[/card] or [card]Temple Garden[/card] early on, I would have two green sources and ramp thanks to [card]Arbor Elf[/card]. I don’t think it calls for a mulligan when looking at the first rule.
2) If I hit a non-green land, the earliest I could play a card was on turn three. That’s not optimal, but the lifegain that Fiendslayer Palladin offered could keep me around until I hit some lands and played [card]Thragtusk[/card]. [card]Ajani, Caller of the Pride[/card], also offered a threat. Sounds pretty loose but not terrible.
3) As I mentioned, I put [card]Thragtusk[/card] aside and figured that I would keep the other six if that situation arose. The hand was still playable, and the last thing I wanted was have to start ditching hands and end up at four cards. I still think that it’s a keep looking at that rule.
4) Unfortunately, my opponent was playing Jund, which is a tough match up for the majority of decks out there. It would definitely punish me if I didn’t hit my lands (which was the end result), but I wouldn’t stand a chance if I had decided to mulligan and didn’t see a playable six.
5) If I was on the draw, this hand would’ve been a much better keep. I could’ve played my [card]Fiendslayer Paladin[/card] on turn three and backed it up with my second copy and Ajani. Seeing as I was on the play, I didn’t do anything until turn four. Much too late.
After going through my hand step-by-step, what do you think I should’ve done?
Life After Jund
That disappointing match against Jund was my first of the tournament, putting me in the 0-1 bracket. In the second round, I beat a UW homebrew that revolved around Elite Archanist and [card]Silence[/card]. It was a fun concept, but he didn’t have an answer for my army of cats after I used Ajani’s ultimate at 23 life.
The third round saw me paired up against RG Aggro. I managed to win game one off of a bonded [card]Thragtusk[/card] and [card]Wolfir Silverheart[/card] team that was supported by a [card]Gavony Township[/card]. Game two had me gain life until I could play the bigger threats and secure the win.
I played against a more streamlined version of RG Aggro in the next round and wasn’t so lucky. In the third game I had to mulligan to five but stuck around until he played a late [card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card].
This put me at 2-2 for the tournament going into the final round. If I wanted a chance at prizes, then I needed to win. The deck I was up against was Jund in colour, but a homebrew version. The first couple of games were one-sided, but the match-deciding third proved to be much better.
Things were looking grim when he had multiple threats on the board including [card]Olivia Voldaren[/card]. I had an [card]Angel of Serenity[/card] in hand but was only at six lands. He was tapped out, so if I drew any of the lands in my deck I would win this turn. If I didn’t, I would be sent packing. Luckily, I was greeted with a [card]Plains[/card] when I drew for turn and finished with a 3-2 record.
Once the standings were posted, I was sitting in ninth, just outside of prize range. However, I didn’t go home empty handed. My local store gives out a random $5 store credit in Standard tournaments, which I managed to win.
Deck Tech
Thanks to my luck and the $5 I had left over from last week I’m sitting at $35 to spend on my deck. Seeing as rotation is just around the corner, I want to be careful with my budget. I will have to spend some money replacing cards and don’t want to be left high and dry once Theros comes out.
With that in mind, I decided to add a second [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] to my deck. It will be fine post rotation and can help me out against the control decks at my local tournaments in the meantime. To make space, I’m taking out a [card]Centaur Healer[/card].
So after spending $20 on the [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] I have $15 in the bank. Even if I’m kept out of the money in my next tournament I will still be starting at $40 next week. Sounds like a good time to look at five drops to replace the rotating [card]Thragtusk[/card]s and [card]Wolfir Silverheart[/card]s. Until then, this is what I’m battling with this week:
[deck title=GW Midrange by Chris Molleson]
[Creatures]
2 Angel of Serenity
3 Arbor Elf
1 Armada Wurm
4 Avacyn’s Pilgrim
3 Centaur Healer
3 Fiendslayer Paladin
2 Scavenging Ooze
4 Thragtusk
3 Wolfiir Silverheart
[/Creatures]
[Spells]
4 Advent of the Wurm
3 Ajani, Caller of the Pride
4 Selesnya Charm
[/Spells]
[Lands]
9 Forest
2 Gavony Township
5 Plains
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden
[/Lands]
[Sideboard]
4 Knight of Glory
3 Oblivion Ring
3 Ranger’s Guile
3 Ray of Revelation
2 Rootborn Defenses
[/Sideboard]
[/deck]
The deck has been performing pretty well lately and seems to be on the verge of doing some damage at FNM. Do you think there are any cards from the Return to Ravnica block or the core set that I should look to add heading into rotation?
Good luck to everyone FNMing this week! Hopefully the insight on mulligans will help if you are faced with that dreaded decision. As always, thanks for reading!
